Lawmakers, Officials Avoid Discussing ‘Realities’ of Medicare’s Future, Columnist Says

The failure of politicians and public opinion makers to discuss candidly the long-term viability of Social Security and Medicare has helped put off the hard choices needed to address the "realities of an aging society," Robert Samuelson writes in a Washington Post opinion piece. According to the federal government's recent financial reports on the two programs, Samuelson writes, Medicare and Social Security are projected to account for 11.1% of gross domestic product by 2030, up from 6.7% in 2001. While such an increase "might be easily bearable" by itself, the introduction of a Medicare drug benefit would boost spending. In addition, the figures do not account for growing nursing home costs, which are largely covered by Medicaid. Faced with the reality that to "pay for costlier retirement programs, taxes will have to be raised, other spending cut or large deficits incurred," a "prudent society would have years ago begun rewriting the generational code to reflect longer life expectancy, improved health, more older people and ... fewer younger people," Samuelson writes. Such changes might include raising the eligibility ages for Medicare and Social Security and "gradually trim[ming]" benefits for the well-off. But "Democrats regard promoting Social Security and Medicare as a reliable standby," while "Republicans don't want to be stigmatized as anti-grandma" -- hence the "aversion to candor," Samuelson writes. In addition, opinion leaders have "failed" in their "role ... to make it possible to talk about unpleasant, but necessary subjects." Samuelson concludes, "Anyone questioning the economic or moral justification for existing retirement" has been "likely to be dismissed as 'out of the mainstream' and hard-hearted. We prefer to wait and hope a crisis doesn't happen" (Samuelson, Washington Post, 4/24).