How Much Will Roe Ruling Matter In Key Midterm States?

Politico: Roe Jolts The Midterms: 5 Takeaways From The 2022 Election Midpoint 
Donald Trump’s legacy was on trial in Washington on Tuesday. But it was his future as the leader of the Republican Party that was being tested elsewhere in the country in the first primaries of the post-Roe v. Wade world. More than half the states have now held primaries, and we’re beginning to see just how important Trump may be to the GOP — and how important Roe may be to the Democrats. They are desperate to stave off disaster in November, and from the Democrats’ messaging on Roe to their interventions in Republican primaries in Colorado and Illinois on Tuesday, the latest big round of multi-state primaries offered the first test of Democrats’ new outlook on the midterms. (Siders, 6/29)

NBC News: Illinois Governor's Race Shapes Up As Test Of Post-Roe Abortion Politics
Republicans nominated a Donald Trump-backed state senator to take on Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, NBC News projects, setting up a November contest where abortion is expected to be a defining issue. (Seitz-Wald, 6/28)

The Hill: The Senate Races That Could Be Impacted By End Of Roe V. Wade
Democrats and Republicans are split over how much impact the Supreme Court decision to strike down Roe v. Wade, the 1973 landmark case establishing a right to an abortion, will have on Senate races, but early polling shows it could make a difference in several key states. Here are six battleground states where the Supreme Court’s ruling could tip the scales in November. (Bolton, 6/29)

Politico: State Lawmakers Are Shaping The Future Of Abortion. Watch These Names. 
In states with split legislatures, the future of abortion policy could come down to just one or two key lawmakers, like in Virginia, where Senate Majority Leader Richard Saslaw, a Democrat, is expected to play an instrumental role in ensuring no abortion legislation advances from the Republican-controlled House of Delegates to Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s desk. POLITICO explores how these lawmakers and others like them are expected to help shape the future of abortion policy in their states in 2022 and 2023. (Messerly, 6/29)

The Hill: Democrats Hope Roe V. Wade Ruling Is Game-Changer For Suburban Women 
Women who reside in American suburbs have been among the most closely watched demographics on both sides of the aisle since the 2016 election, moving away from the Republican Party during the height of Trumpism but inching back in some areas as voters become fatigued and disillusioned by the Biden era.   Ahead of November, liberals’ new hope is that the coveted bloc could flip to blue with the right actions and messaging. The highly personal nature of the Roe ruling, they say, could be a turning point in the otherwise dismal political climate for the party in power. (Trudo and Manchester, 6/29)

The Hill: GOP Walks Tightrope On Abortion 
John Thomas, a Republican strategist who has worked on House campaigns, expected Democrats to see a spike in small dollar donations and said the court decision provides a distraction from the economic woes that have sunk President Biden’s approval ratings and been a central focus of Republicans on the campaign trail. “In terms of the short term, this is a winning conversation for Democrats, particularly vulnerable Democrats where there are lots of college educated white women,” Thomas said. “This gives them a bit of a reprieve from what was otherwise considered just a brutal conversation on almost every front.” (Samuels, 6/29)

On Hispanic voters and Catholics —

The Hill: Roe V. Wade Decision Weighs On Hispanic Voters Before Midterms 
Hispanic voters’ views on abortion are set to play a key role in a number of contested House and Senate races across the country with analysis by both parties showing polar opposite attitudes. For the predominantly Catholic U.S. Hispanic community, abortion has historically played a smaller political role than that of other U.S. Catholics. But certain denominations of Protestantism with stricter political views on abortion are growing quickly among Latinos. And having a Catholic serving as president doesn’t necessarily make a difference on those viewpoints. (Gangitano and Bernal, 6/29)

WLRN 91.3 FM: The Abortion Ruling Resonates Especially With Catholics. Their Response Is Especially Complex
Friday’s U.S. Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe v. Wade resonated especially strongly among Roman Catholics — but the response to it among Catholics in Florida is an especially complicated one. The Catholic Church opposes abortion under any circumstance. So, many Catholics here are celebrating the Supreme Court decision. But abortion is still legal in Florida; although starting Friday, it’ll be limited to the first 15 weeks of pregnancy. And many Catholics say they’ll work hard now to push state legislators to pass a complete ban. “We’re extremely grateful for this decision, because we strive to protect human life from conception to natural death," said Angela Curatalo, who directs the Catholic Archdiocese of Miami's Respect Life Ministry. (Padgett, 6/27)

Also —

AP: After Roe: Dems Challenge GOP To Show They Care For Mothers 
The Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade’s constitutional protections for abortion rights set off a contest between Democrats and Republicans going into the midterm elections over whose policies would do more to help vulnerable mothers and children. Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., who heads the Republican campaign committee in the Senate, said GOP lawmakers now have the responsibility to “do everything in our power to meet the needs of struggling women and their families so they can choose life.” (Boak, 6/28)