Just As Models Start To Align On Death Total Projections, Reopening Inserts More Uncertainty
The differences between the models most commonly used to try to forecast virus fatalities are starting to narrow, with most agreeing that the U.S. will be hit by an additional 31,000 to 42,000 deaths through mid-June. But those figures rely on the current state of affairs, which is about to be upended as states lift social distancing restrictions.
The New York Times:
Coronavirus Models Are Nearing Consensus, But Reopening Could Throw Them Off Again
There is growing consensus among modelers estimating the number of cases and deaths from the novel coronavirus in the next few weeks. But this convergence of estimates — 31,000 to 42,000 additional deaths through mid-June for roughly 120,000 total deaths in the United States — comes just as shifts in public policy are likely to create new uncertainty about the path of the pandemic after that. (Bui, Katz, Parlapiano and Sanger-Katz, 5/12)
NPR:
Different Coronavirus Models Are Starting To Agree. The Picture's Not Good
More than 82,000 people in the U.S. have died of COVID-19 as of Tuesday. How many more lives will be lost? Scientists have built dozens of computational models to answer that question. But the profusion of forecasts poses a challenge: The models use such a wide range of methodologies, formats, and time frames, it's hard to get even a ballpark sense of what the future has in store. Enter Nicholas Reich, a biostatistician at University of Massachusetts Amherst. Reich and his colleagues have developed a method to compare and ultimately to merge the diverse models of the disease's progression into one "ensemble" projection. The resulting forecast is sobering: By June 6, the cumulative death toll in the U.S. will reach 110,000. (Aizenman and McMinn, 5/13)
Reuters:
Researchers Revise U.S. COVID-19 Death Forecast Upward Again
A newly revised coronavirus mortality model predicts more than 147,000 Americans will die from COVID-19 by early August, up nearly 10,000 from the last projection, as restrictions for curbing the pandemic are relaxed, researchers said on Tuesday. The latest forecast here from the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) reflects "key drivers of viral transmission like changes in testing and mobility, as well as easing of distancing policies," the report said. (Gorman, 5/12)
