Politics And Policies: What Scenarios Might Play Out If Court Topples Mandate Or Entire Law

News outlets offer predictions on everything from when the high court might rule to what the White House and congressional leaders are planning in response.

Modern Healthcare: Reform Ruling Looms As Court Winds Down
The U.S. Supreme Court entered the final two weeks of its ongoing term without issuing a ruling today on the constitutional challenges to the healthcare reform law. The court has another chance Thursday to issue a ruling on the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, though many observers have said a decision during the week of June 25th would be most likely, based on the timing of past controversial decisions from the high court (Carlson, 6/18).

The Associated Press: AP Sources: Administration Mulls Pared Health Law
Covering all the bases ahead of a momentous Supreme Court ruling, the Obama administration plans to move ahead with major parts of the president's health care law if its most controversial provision does not survive, according to veteran Democrats closely involved with the legislation. Even if the requirement that nearly every U.S. resident have health insurance is declared unconstitutional, the remaining parts of the law would have far-reaching impact, putting coverage within reach of millions of uninsured people, laying new obligations on insurers and employers, and improving Medicare benefits even as payments to many service providers get scaled back (Alonso-Zaldivar, 6/18).

The Wall Street Journal's Capital Journal: No Clear Script If Health Law Falls
Nothing has ever been simple in the great health-care debate, and there's no reason to think the coming Supreme Court decision on the topic, or the political repercussions from it, will be simple either. When the court rules sometime in the next two weeks, the waves it sets off will be tricky for both parties to navigate. A ruling striking down all or part of the law—which is what conventional wisdom anticipates—would be bad news for the Democrats who championed the legislation. What's less appreciated is that a negative ruling also would create new and distinct challenges for Republicans (Seib, 6/18).

Politico Pro: Daschle: 50-50 Chance Court Topples Mandate
Former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle says there's a 50-50 chance the Supreme Court will strike the health law's individual mandate and the country should prepare "options." "I think the bottom line is that everybody understands this is at best 50-50," Daschle said on MSNBC on Monday. "No one, not even the optimists, can predict that the court is going to rule unanimously in favor of this [law]. I think the conventional wisdom right now is that they won't." Daschle — who almost became President Barack Obama's HHS secretary but was sidetracked by tax issues — said he expects a "tremendous" amount of political rhetoric from both sides after the ruling (Haberkorn, 6/18).

Reuters: Parties Jockey On Healthcare Ahead Of Court Ruling
What might sound like music to some voters' ears is also part of the political dance that Republicans and Democrats have started as they await a landmark ruling on the 2010 healthcare reform from the Supreme Court within the next two weeks. In an election year, the political stakes are high on an issue which, many polls show, has divided the nation. How the court's decision is framed politically, whether by the Democrats and Obama or the Republicans and their presumptive nominee Mitt Romney, could sway wavering independent voters that each side probably needs to win the November 6 election (Morgan, 6/19).

Kaiser Health News: GOP Promises Smaller-Scale Health Care Agenda If Court Strikes Down Law
If the Supreme Court strikes down all or part of the health law, Republicans are poised to rub it in - through the November election - then roll out their own, smaller proposals (Werber Serafini, 6/18).

Politico Pro: Business Urge Cooling-Off Time After Ruling
The business community is urging Congress not to rush into any decisions after the Supreme Court rules on President Barack Obama’s health care reform law — warning that it already has enough economic turmoil on its hands. In a letter to congressional leaders, the Business Roundtable is asking lawmakers to establish a "cooling-off" period before it acts on legislation in response to the ruling. The group wants Congress to consider the economic implications of the court's decision and hold hearings before it responds. "Whatever the ruling, the nation would be well served by a 'cooling-off period' that would allow elected leaders to fully consider their options," John Engler, president of the Business Roundtable and former Republican governor of Michigan, wrote in a letter obtained by POLITICO (Haberkorn, 6/19).