Crystal-Ball Predictions On The Health Law Decision

Bloomberg News examines another recent Supreme Court case where the justices were critical of the administration's arguments but upheld the law in the end. Meanwhile, various stakeholders and public officials offer their views on what the high court might do and what impact it might have.

Bloomberg: Voting-Rights Surprise At High Court May Foreshadow Health Care
When U.S. Supreme Court justices picked apart the government's arguments in defense of President Barack Obama’s health-care overhaul, they buoyed the hopes of the law's opponents that it would be ruled unconstitutional. A 2009 challenge to the landmark 1965 Voting Rights Act offers a cautionary note.  In both cases, the justices repeatedly interrupted as the administration made its case…..Two months later, the court left the law intact on an 8-1 vote. The justices struck a compromise that let them avoid a direct ruling on the constitutional challenge to the measure (Stohr, 6/7).

Kaiser Health News: Medicaid Association Director: Uncertainty, Legislative Politics Have Slowed State Implementation (Video)
Kaiser Health News' Mary Agnes Carey talks to Andy Allison, Arkansas Medicaid director and president of the National Association of Medicaid Directors, who is adamant that cash-strapped states won't be able to do much to expand coverage to the uninsured if the Supreme Court strikes down the law. This interview is part of KHN's video series "Supreme Uncertainty: What's Next After The Court Rules," which solicits views from public officials and policy experts about the upcoming Supreme Court ruling on the health law and its implications for the future of health care (6/6).

The Associated Press: New AMA Chief: No Chaos With Court's Health Ruling
Americans should not expect chaos if the U.S. Supreme Court rejects all or part of the sweeping health care law, the incoming president of the nation's largest physicians group said Wednesday. Dr. Jeremy Lazarus, who takes over as the American Medical Association's president later this month, isn't making any predictions on a high court decision, he told The Associated Press in an interview (Tanner, 6/6).

CQ HealthBeat: Erasing Mandate Won't Kill Heart Of Health Care Law, Pollack Says
Ending the individual mandate won't kill the heart of the health care law, says a leading supporter of the overhaul measure. In fact, up to 40 million people could still get coverage under the law even if the U.S. Supreme Court strikes down the mandate, says Ron Pollack, executive director of Families USA (Reichard, 6/6).

Politico Pro: Health Care Decision A Budget Boon?
Congress could stumble into a big pile of cash from an unlikely source: The Supreme Court. The justices will deliver their landmark ruling on the 2010 health care law this month, and the government is in line to reap hundreds of billions of dollars in savings — perhaps more than $1 trillion — if certain parts of it are struck down. That money could be freed up just in time for a battle over whether automatic cuts to the Pentagon and social programs will kick in, and some members of Congress are already dreaming about the possibilities (Allen, 6/6).

Modern Healthcare: For-Profit Hospitals Would Face Hit If Reform Falls: Moody's
The credit strength of for-profit hospitals will fare best if the U.S. Supreme Court upholds the healthcare reform law, rather than striking down some or all of the law, according to Moody's Investors Service. But pharmaceutical and medical-device companies would likely benefit most if the Supreme Court throws out the entire Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (Evans, 6/6).

News outlets also report on Republican "messaging" related to the upcoming decision - 

CQ HealthBeat: Boehner Briefs Members On Health Care Messaging
Anticipating the Supreme Court's decision on President Obama's health care law this month, Speaker John A. Boehner briefed his conference about health care messaging at a closed-door meeting Wednesday morning. The Ohio Republican’s office is also circulating a list of talking points to GOP offices to unify their response no matter which way the court rules on the law. The Speaker emphasized the importance of talking about the law's effect on small businesses, according to a source in the room (Newhauser, 6/6).

Bloomberg: Sick Should Stay Insured After Ruling, Republicans Say
Republican lawmakers with medical backgrounds will try to ensure that sick people who gained insurance under the 2010 U.S. health-care overhaul won’t lose coverage in the event the Supreme Court strikes down the law. The Republicans are preparing for a ruling that says it’s unconstitutional to require Americans to carry insurance while letting the rest of the law stand, said Representative Phil Gingrey, an obstetrician-gynecologist from Georgia who co-chairs a group of 21 lawmakers with health-care backgrounds.  Gingrey and his group met yesterday with Kevin McCarthy, the majority whip, in the first such session Republican leaders plan to hold with the rank-and-file to shape a response to the court’s decision, expected by the end of June (Wayne, 6/6).