‘Nobody Knows The Truth’: Without Widespread Testing, Scientists Flying Blind On Infection And Mortality Rates
Early experiments with antibody testing in California reveal that the number of cases are far, far greater than the official count. But that doesn't mean those numbers will play out across the country. Scientists are starting to think about testing incentives--like cash rewards--as they try to figure out ways to get the best samples possible.
The New York Times:
Coronavirus Infections May Not Be Uncommon, Tests Suggest
Two new studies using antibody tests to assess how many people have been infected with the coronavirus have turned up numbers higher than some experts had expected. Both studies were performed in California: one among residents of Santa Clara County, south of San Francisco, and the other among residents of Los Angeles County. In both cases, the estimates of the number of people infected in those counties were far higher than the number of confirmed cases. (Kolata, 4/21)
The New York Times:
How Many Coronavirus Infections? Rewards For Testing May Provide An Answer
In March, Andrew Atkeson, an economics professor at the University of California, Los Angeles, tried to assess the mortality rate from the new coronavirus based on what is known about its spread. Does it kill 1 percent of those infected, roughly the case fatality rate on the Diamond Princess cruise ship? Or might it be closer to 0.1 percent, the mortality rate in the United States from the common flu? If two-thirds of the population becomes infected, as would be needed to achieve what is known as “herd immunity,” the difference between those mortality rates would amount to two million deaths nationwide. (Porter, 4/21)
Los Angeles Times:
California Coronavirus Tests To Cover Some Asymptomatic People
California public health officials have partially lifted restrictions on who should receive tests for the coronavirus, recommending for the first time that asymptomatic people living or working in high-risk settings such as nursing homes, prisons and even some households should now be considered a priority. The move makes California the first state to broaden restrictive federal guidelines and reflects increasing availability of testing, as major labs report sufficient supplies and excess capacity to run more procedures, according to the public health department. (Baumgaertner, 4/21)
CNN:
California Town Is Testing Every Resident For Coronavirus And Antibodies
A remote Northern California hamlet became one of the first places in the world Monday to attempt to comprehensively test all of its residents for Covid-19 and the antibodies believed to make one immune from infection. The community-wide free testing effort in Bolinas, California, is voluntary. The town is one of two communities taking part in the new study launched by the University of California, San Francisco with the aim of gaining a more complete understanding of how the virus invisibly spread during the initial shortfall of comprehensive nationwide testing. (Martin, 4/22)
The New York Times:
From 1 To 1,000s: Solving The Mysteries Of Coronavirus With Genetic Fingerprints
As the coronavirus outbreak consumed the city of Wuhan in China, new cases of the virus began to spread out like sparks flung from a fire. Some landed thousands of miles away. By the middle of January, one had popped up in Chicago, another one near Phoenix. Two others came down in the Los Angeles area. Thanks to a little luck and a lot of containment, those flashes of the virus appear to have been snuffed out before they had a chance to take hold. (Baker and Fink, 4/22)
