Baby Boomer Demand for Long-Term Care Will Occur in 20-30 Years, Study Indicates

Improved socioeconomic conditions and higher education levels have contributed to a decrease in disability rates among members of the baby boom generation, and the "prospect that aging baby boomers will place overwhelming demand on the nation's long-term care system may be at least two decades away," according to a report issued yesterday by AARP, the Los Angeles Times reports. Don Redfoot, coauthor of the report and a senior policy advisor at the AARP Public Policy Institute, said, "For the next couple of decades, there will be less demand for supportive services, so we can make some needed reforms and regear long-term services." Past studies had predicted a large increase in demand for long-term care services as baby boomers, the 76 million U.S. residents born between 1946 and 1964, reach the ages of 75 to 80. According to the report, the number of elderly U.S. residents with disabilities and those who receive nursing home care has decreased over the past 10 to 15 years, despite an increase in the age of the population. About 1.8 million elderly U.S. residents with disabilities resided in nursing homes and assisted-living facilities in 1994, according to the Duke University Center for Demographic Studies, and the number decreased to 1.6 million by 1999, with only 1.2 million in nursing homes. Increased participation in assisted living and home health care, as well as a rise in familial and financial support, has contributed to the decrease in the number of elderly U.S. residents with disabilities who reside in nursing homes, the report found. More education, more financial resources and medical advances also will help baby boomers maintain their health, Redfoot said, although higher rates of divorce and childlessness may "complicate the long-term picture," the Times reports. Redfoot added, "Not everyone has enjoyed declining disability rates, especially minorities and those with low incomes. Policy makers should not shy away from addressing those issues" (Levin, Los Angeles Times, 1/15).