Popular Model Adjusts Forecast To 74K U.S. Deaths By August; ‘Excess Deaths’ Reveal Gap Between Reality, Official Total
The popular predictive model is often cited by the White House, and has been more conservative in its death estimates than other models. On Monday those scientists adjusted the predictions up for the summer to more than 74,000 deaths. Meanwhile, analysis looking at year-over-year numbers suggests that there are thousands of deaths that are related to COVID-19 but that aren't being counted.
Reuters:
U.S. Coronavirus Deaths Projected At Over 74,000 By August
The U.S. death toll from the coronavirus outbreak could exceed 74,000 by August, according to the University of Washington’s predictive model, often cited by White House officials and state public health authorities. Late on Monday, the university’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) model raised its projected U.S. death toll to 74,073 by Aug. 4, up from nearly 67,000 predicted a week ago, and 60,000 predicted two weeks ago. (4/28)
Politico:
Trump Raises His Virus Death Toll Projection To Up To 70,000 In U.S.
President Donald Trump on Monday acknowledged more Americans would die of the coronavirus than he has recently predicted, now saying that the nationwide toll is likely to be between 60,000 and 70,000. (Ollstein, 4/27)
The New York Times:
N.Y.C. Deaths Reach 6 Times The Normal Level, Far More Than Coronavirus Count Suggests
More than 27,000 New Yorkers have died since the start of the novel coronavirus outbreak in March — 20,900 more than would be expected over this period and thousands more than have been captured by official coronavirus death statistics. (Katz and Sanger-Katz, 4/27)
The Washington Post:
U.S. Coronavirus Deaths In Early Weeks Of Pandemic Exceeded Official Number
The excess deaths — the number beyond what would normally be expected for that time of year — occurred during March and through April 4, a time when 8,128 coronavirus deaths were reported. The excess deaths are not necessarily attributable directly to covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus. They could include people who died because of the epidemic but not from the disease, such as those who were afraid to seek medical treatment for unrelated illnesses, as well as some number of deaths that are part of the ordinary variation in the death rate. The count is also affected by increases or decreases in other categories of deaths, such as suicides, homicides and motor vehicle accidents. (Brown, Ba Tran, Reinhard and Ulmanu, 4/27)
The Hill:
Case Fatality Rates Rise As Coronavirus Runs Deadly Course
The percentage of people who die after testing positive for the coronavirus is rising even as thousands of new U.S. cases are identified each day, a troubling preview of the weeks and months that lie ahead. Epidemiologists and experts say increased case fatality rates are a natural function of a deadly virus running its course: The people who succumb today were probably infected as long as a month ago, when the number of cases began accelerating. (Wilson, 4/27)
Los Angeles Times:
Coronavirus Deaths Doubled In L.A. County Last Week
The number of coronavirus deaths in Los Angeles County doubled in the last week amid new evidence that the poor are being hardest hit, according to the county health department. As of Sunday, the county had recorded 916 deaths and nearly 20,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19. (Wigglesworth, 4/27)
Atlanta Journal-Constitution:
Behind The Data: Breaking Down The Statistical Models Of COVID-19
The public’s thirst for information about the coronavirus has sharply elevated the profiles of academic and government research institutions that analyze data about the virus. The COVID-19 tracker developed by Johns Hopkins University became a near-constant image on cable news, showing new cases glowing red in hotspots around the world.But there are other sources that go beyond recording new cases, deaths and mapping them around the world. These sources take data about the virus and forecast the future. But they each do it in different ways and it’s important to understand the differences. (Thieme, 4/24)
