Morning Briefing
Summaries of health policy coverage from major news organizations
'Third Wave' Set To Swamp US; Planet Hits 40M COVID Cases
Reuters: Global Coronavirus Cases Surpass The 40 Million Milestone
Worldwide coronavirus cases crossed 40 million on Monday, according to a Reuters tally, as the onset of winter in the northern hemisphere fuelled a resurgence in the spread of the disease. The Reuters tally is based on official reporting by individual countries. Experts believe the true numbers of both cases and deaths are likely much higher, given deficiencies in testing and potential under-reporting by some countries. The Reuters data shows the pace of the pandemic continues to pick up. It took just 32 days to go from 30 million global cases to 40 million, compared with the 38 days it took to get from 20 to 30 million, the 44 days between 10 and 20 million, and the three months it took to reach 10 million cases from when the first cases were reported in Wuhan, China, in early January. (Ahluwalia and Abraham, 10/19)
CNBC: U.S. May Face 'Substantial Third Wave' Of Coronavirus Cases, Experts Warn
Colder temperatures are arriving in the Northern Hemisphere, and an insidious rise in new coronavirus cases in the U.S. and Europe is underway. For months, health officials have warned against this possibility, and as these trends begin to materialize, countries are weighing whether to impose stricter measures to contain the virus’ spread. (Higgins-Dunn, Feuer and Rattner, 10/17)
NBC News: Covid-19 Cases Climbing In Almost Every State As U.S. Braces For Possible 'third Peak'
Although Texas reported a "slight decrease" in cases over the 14-day period that ended Saturday, its news was better than elsewhere: 38 states, Washington, D.C., and Guam all recorded increases in cases over the last 14 days, and nine states have plateaued, according to NBC News tallies. Rhode Island, which, like Texas, has also had a net decrease, does not report data over the weekend, and Missouri is not reporting data because of a technology issue. (Kesslen and Grumbach, 10/18)
The Hill: Key Coronavirus Model Predicts Nearly 80 Percent Rise In Deaths By February
A key model foresees approximately 171,000 more coronavirus related deaths by February 2021, a number that would represent a spike of 78 percent. The model from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington School of Medicine suggests there will be roughly 389,087 deaths by Feb. 1. If all Americans use face masks, the model’s best-case scenario projects 314,000 deaths by that date. The model, however, foresees more than 477,000 deaths if mask mandates are eased. (Gstalter, 10/16)
NPR: How Many COVID Deaths Could U.S. See This Winter? Here's What Experts Project
Coronavirus cases are rising rapidly in many states as the U.S. heads into the winter months. And forecasters predict staggering growth in infections and deaths if current trends continue. It's exactly the kind of scenario that public health experts have long warned could be in store for the country, if it did not aggressively tamp down on infections over the summer. (Stone, 10/16)
