Clock Ticking: Herd Immunity Bar Now Higher; Will ‘Doomsday’ Variant Emerge?
Health experts try to predict the future path of the unpredictable coronavirus. Meanwhile, the quick spread of the delta variant changes Americans' views about the state of the pandemic -- but not the behaviors of the unvaccinated.
Bloomberg:
Delta Variant Spread Seen Pushing Covid Herd Immunity Threshold Above 80%
The spread of the delta coronavirus variant has pushed the threshold for herd immunity to well over 80% and potentially approaching 90%, according to an Infectious Diseases Society of America briefing on Tuesday. That represents a “much higher” bar than previous estimates of 60% to 70%, because delta is twice as transmissible, said Richard Franco, an assistant professor at the University of Alabama at Birmingham. (Court, 8/3)
Newsweek:
A Doomsday COVID Variant Worse Than Delta And Lambda May Be Coming, Scientists Say
Scientists keep underestimating the coronavirus. In the beginning of the pandemic, they said mutated versions of the virus wouldn't be much of a problem—until the more-infectious Alpha caused a spike in cases last fall. Then Beta made young people sicker and Gamma reinfected those who'd already recovered from COVID-19. Still, by March, as the winter surge in the U.S. receded, some epidemiologists were cautiously optimistic that the rapid vaccine rollout would soon tame the variants and cause the pandemic to wind down. Delta has now shattered that optimism. This variant, first identified in India in December, spreads faster than any previous strain of SARS-CoV-2, as the COVID-19 virus is officially named. It is driving up infection rates in every state of the U.S., prompting the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to once again recommend universal mask-wearing. (Freedman, 8/4)
The Washington Post:
The Delta-Plus Coronavirus Variant: Here’s What We Know
South Korea’s Disease Control and Prevention Agency said Tuesday that it had recorded at least two cases of the new coronavirus delta-plus variant, which some experts believe to be more transmissible than the original delta variant that was first detected in India and has since thwarted plans for returning to life before the pandemic. But what do we know about “delta plus,” yet another new variant causing alarm among governments and health officials? First identified in Europe in March, the variant is also known as B. 1.617.2.1 or AY.1. (Hassan and Beachum, 8/3)
NBC News:
Unvaccinated Americans Not Changing Their Behavior, Report Finds
Unvaccinated Americans believe the vaccines are more dangerous than Covid-19, while vaccinated Americans believe the delta variant is worrisome enough that they continue to mask in public and avoid large gatherings. And even though almost 165 million people in the U.S. are fully vaccinated and the delta variant is raging across the country, the percentage of U.S. adults who say they oppose the Covid vaccines has remained unchanged since December, according to a report from the Kaiser Family Foundation. The survey's findings, published Wednesday, show some of the striking differences between the two groups and the challenges facing public health officials. (Edwards, 8/4)
Axios:
Americans Once Again Think The Worst Of The Pandemic Is Yet To Come
A majority of Americans now, once again, say the worst of the pandemic is yet to come, per new Harris polling provided exclusively to Axios. We took a brief hiatus from worrying about the pandemic, but the Delta variant and the response to it appear to have sent us back to a dark place. “It’s clear we are still far from ‘Mission Accomplished’ on COVID," said Harris Poll CEO John Gerzema. (Owens, 8/4)
The New York Times:
Is The Delta Variant Making Younger Adults ‘Sicker, Quicker’?
Recently, a 28-year-old patient died of Covid-19 at CoxHealth Medical Center in Springfield, Mo. Last week, a 21-year-old college student was admitted to intensive care. Many of the patients with Covid-19 now arriving at the hospital are not just unvaccinated — they are much younger than 50, a stark departure from the frail, older patients seen when the pandemic first surged last year. In Baton Rouge, La., young adults with none of the usual risk factors for severe forms of the disease — such as obesity or diabetes — are also arriving in E.R.s, desperately ill. It isn’t clear why they are so sick. (Caryn Rabin, 8/3)
