20% Of Tested NYC Residents Have Coronavirus Antibodies, But Experts Say Take Results With Grain Of Salt
The serological survey data that's been trickling in over the past few days has been shocking--showing just how much the coronavirus has spread through mild or asymptomatic cases. While experts say that the tests are an important tool, the results shouldn't be taken as gospel.
The New York Times:
1 In 5 New Yorkers May Have Had Covid-19, Antibody Tests Suggest
One of every five New York City residents tested positive for antibodies to the coronavirus, according to preliminary results described by Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo on Thursday that suggested that the virus had spread far more widely than known. If the pattern holds, the results from random testing of 3,000 people raised the tantalizing prospect that many New Yorkers — as many as 2.7 million, the governor said — who never knew they had been infected had already encountered the virus, and survived. Mr. Cuomo also said that such wide infection might mean that the death rate was far lower than believed. (Goodman and Rothfeld, 4/23)
Reuters:
New York Survey Suggests Nearly 14% In State May Have Coronavirus Antibodies
While noting the small sample size of 3,000 people and other limitations of the survey, Cuomo said the implied fatality rate of 0.5% of those infected was lower than some experts feared. “If the infection rate is 13.9 percent, then it changes the theories of what the death rate is if you get infected,” Cuomo told a daily briefing. The implied fatality rate of 0.5% was calculated by dividing the official statewide death count to date of about 15,500 by the estimated number of infected - 14% of New York’s 19 million residents, or 2.7 million people. (Goldberg and Layne, 4/23)
Stat:
Coronavirus 'Serosurvey' Results Are Coming. Here's How To Kick Their Tires
Results from the first studies designed to determine how widely the coronavirus has spread in communities have started to trickle in, drawing immense attention. These studies, after all, are seen as critical indicators of when it might be safe to lift movement restrictions. Already, though, experts are raising concerns about the validity of some of the studies and cautioning officials and the general public not to put too much weight on any one finding. (Joseph and Branswell, 4/24)
The Wall Street Journal:
Facts And Myths About Coronavirus Antibody Tests
Everyone has their hopes pinned on antibody or serology tests—blood tests designed to detect who was previously infected with the new coronavirus and has developed antibodies to it. Businesses and governments hope the tests can help slowly open up the economy. Individuals hope the tests can tell them if they will be protected from getting Covid-19 again. In an effort to get the tests out as quickly as possible, the Food and Drug Administration isn’t requiring manufacturers to get approval from the agency. The result, experts say, is that many tests are of dubious quality and include false claims. (Reddy, 4/23)
The New York Times:
Was It Covid? Americans Ask Amid Signs The Coronavirus Came Earlier
In January, a mystery illness swept through a call center in a skyscraper on Michigan Avenue in Chicago. Close to 30 people in one department alone had symptoms — dry, deep coughs and fevers they could not shake. When they gradually returned to work after taking sick days, they sat in their cubicles looking wan and tired. “I’ve started to think it was the coronavirus,” said Julie Parks, a 63-year-old employee who was among the sick. “I may have had it, but I can’t be sure. It’s limbo.” (Bosman, Harmon and Fuller, 4/23)
Boston Globe:
Should Those With Antibodies Get A Digital Pass To Go Back To Work?
In the race for an all-clear signal, Alex Pentland proposes a solution: a kind of digital passport that shows the carrier poses no risk of spreading COVID-19 and can safely resume normal life, including returning to work. Pentland is an eminent computer scientist, a cofounder of the Media Lab at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. In a paper published this week, he proposed a digital identity system that would disclose whether a person has blood that contains COVID antibodies and is therefore at little risk of becoming infected or infecting others. (Bray, 4/23)
WBUR:
Why The Warning That Coronavirus Was On The Move In U.S. Cities Came So Late
In early February, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention was looking for ways to stop the novel coronavirus before it got out of control in the United States. The agency selected six cities for sentinel surveillance — a sort of early warning system to detect if the coronavirus was spreading freely. The idea was to look for the virus among patients who had mild respiratory symptoms and no known travel-related risk factors — patients who weren't being tested under CDC guidelines at the time. (Sommer, 4/24)
