Ballot Box Abortion Debate Could Knock Manchin, Sinema Off Pedestals
The two Democratic senators have repeatedly stood in the way of President Joe Biden's domestic agenda. But their influence could wane in the next Congress if Democrats perform as strongly in the November elections as they have in recent primaries and special elections.
The Washington Post:
Liberals Now Have A Path, Still Narrow, To Enacting Expansive Agenda
Democratic Sens. Joe Manchin III (W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (Ariz.) have held leverage over the Biden agenda for 19 months now. ... That would all change if Democrats hold the House and gain two seats in the Senate. It would also open the way for more-expansive liberal wish-list items through passage of party-line budget bills — Sinema was the lone Democrat to block higher taxes on private equity and certain fund mangers, while Manchin almost single-handedly blocked the expansion of the child tax credit that most Democrats believed was a policy game changer. (Kane, 8/24)
The Washington Post:
GOP Prospects Narrow In House As Democrats Overperform In Special Elections
Democratic candidates now have outperformed President Biden’s 2020 margins in four special elections held since the Supreme Court overturned the nationwide right to abortion enshrined in Roe v. Wade. The starkest example came Tuesday in New York’s 19th Congressional District, where Democrat Pat Ryan — who made abortion access central to his campaign — defeated Republican Marc Molinaro by just over two percentage points. Biden won the district by little more than one percentage point in 2020. (Knowles, Weigel and Kane, 8/24)
The Washington Post:
Democrats Show Momentum Coming Out Of Special Elections
The state of play suggests Democrats should lose at least one chamber of Congress and probably both. That’s when you consider the narrowness of their majorities (fewer than 10 seats in the House and a 50-50 Senate), President Biden’s dim political fortunes and the history of the party opposite the White House very often gaining ground in midterm elections. It still might happen, but multiple special elections have given Democrats increasing license to believe they can beat the fundamentals. (Blake, 8/24)
The New York Times:
Growing Evidence Against A Republican Wave
One special election would be easy to dismiss. But it’s not alone. There have been five special congressional elections since the court’s Dobbs ruling overturned Roe, and Democrats have outperformed Mr. Biden’s 2020 showing in four of them. In the fifth district, Alaska’s at-large House special, the ranked-choice voting count is not complete, but they appear poised to outperform him there as well. On average, Republicans carried the four completed districts by 3.7 percentage points, compared with Donald J. Trump’s 7.7-point edge in the same districts two years ago. The results aren’t merely worse than expected for Republicans; they’re straightforwardly poor. Republicans need to fare better than Mr. Trump, who lost the national vote by 4.5 points in 2020, to retake the House — let alone contemplate winning the Senate. (Cohn, 8/24)
The New York Times:
N.Y. Special Election Shows Power Of Abortion Debate To Move Democrats
Within an hour of the Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe v. Wade in June, Pat Ryan, a combat veteran, released an ad for his congressional campaign, stressing his support for abortion rights. After Kansans overwhelmingly voted to defend abortion protections this month, Mr. Ryan cast his upcoming race as the next major test of the issue’s power. And on Wednesday, hours after Mr. Ryan won his special election in a battleground district in New York’s Hudson Valley, he said that the lessons from his contest were clear. (Glueck, 8/24)
In related news about President Biden's legislative agenda —
Politico:
Biden’s Yet To Fill The Job That May Soon Matter More Than Any Other
The fate of President Joe Biden’s agenda could soon rest with the administrator of a tiny office deep within the White House. But first, Biden needs to decide who that administrator will be. After leaving the office without a permanent leader for the first 18 months of Biden’s presidency, the White House is closer to picking someone to run its Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs. The obscure unit is nonetheless poised to wield outsized influence over the administration’s policy ambitions, especially if Democrats lose control of either congressional chamber this fall. (Cancryn, 8/24)
