Grim GDP Report From First Quarter Only ‘Tip Of Iceberg’ Of Bad Economic Numbers To Come Next
While the expected GDP drop from the first quarter of 2020 would be the sharpest since the Great Recession, experts say the second quarter will be far worse. That hit could be "three times as large as what we experienced in the global financial crisis," said Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist for Oxford Economics. In other economic news: consumer confidence plummets, IRS scrambles to get stimulus payments out, as states reopen workers might be forced off unemployment pay and more.
The Associated Press:
GDP Report To Show A Damaged Economy Sliding Into Recession
The U.S. economy began 2020 riding the crest of a record-long expansion with every expectation that its 11th year of growth would not be its last. Then the economy screeched to a sudden halt. And now it’s in free-fall. On Wednesday, the government will offer a glimpse of how dark the picture has grown and how much worse it could get as the coronavirus pandemic inflicts ruinous damage. (Crutsinger, 4/29)
The Wall Street Journal:
Coronavirus Likely Led To Biggest Quarterly GDP Decline In Decade
Economists expect first-quarter U.S. gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced across the economy, contracted at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.5% in the first three months of the year. The Commerce Department is due to release its initial estimate of first-quarter GDP on Wednesday. The report is likely to show the early impact of widespread disruptions in the U.S. economy caused by business and school shutdowns, social distancing and other initiatives aimed at containing the virus. These responses to the pandemic started in the final three weeks of the first quarter and were an abrupt shift from steady economic activity before the virus arrived. (Torry, 4/29)
NPR:
GDP Forecast: Economy Shrank In 1st Quarter. But Worst Is Still To Come
Forecasters say even though that shock affected only the last few weeks of the quarter, it was more than enough to erase the gains of the previous 2 1/2 months. Daco estimates the nation's gross domestic product — the broadest measure of economic activity — shrank an an annual rate of more than 5% during the quarter. That would be the first quarterly contraction since 2014. Unfortunately, he said, that's "only the tip of the iceberg." (Horsley, 4/29)
Politico:
Economists Urge Republicans To Ignore The Deficit
As economists urge Congress to infuse the economy with more funds to shield the nation from the coronavirus pandemic, Republican lawmakers have begun to waver, citing a familiar but long-neglected concern: the federal budget deficit. Both chambers are eyeing the next phase of a coronavirus relief package, on top of nearly $3 trillion already authorized. But Republicans are beginning to suggest Congress should hit a temporary pause button on spending, warning that all of the red ink could deal a crushing blow to the economy down the road. (Guida and Levine, 4/29)
Reuters:
Much Of U.S. Economy Still Plugging Along Despite Coronavirus Pain
The coronavirus crisis would appear to have put the entire U.S. economy on ice. Twenty-six million people have filed for unemployment in just a month, with millions more likely waiting in electronic queues at overtaxed state unemployment systems. Still the U.S. job count stood at more than 152 million as of February. Paychecks are arriving for tens of millions of government workers, hospital, sanitation, utility and other employees deemed to be doing essential jobs; an army of employees working from home; and even chefs cooking for carry-out. (Schneider, 4/29)
The Associated Press:
Consumer Confidence Plunges In April As Millions Lose Jobs
U.S. consumer confidence plunged in April as millions lost their jobs and there was an unprecedented deterioration of an index that monitors their attitudes about current business and work conditions. The Conference Board said Tuesday that its confidence index tumbled to a reading of 86.9, the lowest level in nearly six years and down from 118.8 in March. The index is composed of consumers’ assessment of present conditions and expectations about the future. (4/28)
The Hill:
IRS Gets Coronavirus Payments Out Quickly But Imperfectly
In the month since President Trump signed a record $2.2 trillion coronavirus relief package, the IRS has been scrambling to implement key aspects of the measure at a time when most Americans are desperate for government aid. The IRS has won praise from experts for its ability to start implementing the law quickly, but its work hasn’t been perfect. The agency has been a source of frustration for tens of millions of Americans who are still awaiting their direct payments from the CARES Act that was signed into law on March 27. (Jagoda, 4/28)
The New York Times:
Federal Reserve Discusses Crisis, And Powell Will Meet Press
Federal Reserve officials are wrapping up meetings on Wednesday after two months of nonstop action to avert financial calamity as the coronavirus roiled markets and upended the world economy. The gathering is a chance to consider how to position monetary policy for the trials ahead. The Fed is now back on its regular schedule after two emergency meetings in March. (Smialek, 4/29)
The Washington Post:
His Name On Stimulus Checks, Trump Sends A Gushing Letter To 90 Million People
President Trump pushed to have his name printed on the economic stimulus payments the IRS is sending to tens of millions of Americans. Now he’s written a gushing letter to almost 90 million people, with his jagged signature in thick black pen. The one-page letter, with one side printed in English and the other in Spanish, was required by the coronavirus economic package approved by Congress as a record of a deposit from the Treasury Department. The law does not say who should mail the letter. (Rein and Singletary, 4/29)
USA Today:
Coronavirus: COVID-19 Provides 'Opportunity' For US To Fight Poverty
Jeremiah Newson, 25, moved here from Chicago last year to be closer to his girlfriend and baby. He found a homeless shelter that helped him get three meals, transportation and medical care. When COVID-19 hit and he wasn't allowed to leave the shelter, Newson started sleeping on the streets where he thinks he's less likely to catch the coronavirus that causes the disease. But the poverty and homelessness he's faced since high school puts him and his immune system at high risk of other chronic health conditions that make him more vulnerable wherever he goes. (O'Donnell, 4/28)
NPR:
As Governors Urge Businesses To Reopen, Workers May Be Pushed Off Unemployment
There's a call Laura Jean Truman is dreading and she's convinced it's just a matter of time before it comes. Truman, who's a server at Manuel's Tavern in Atlanta, Ga., says the source of her angst is the fear that sometime in the next few weeks her boss is going to call and say it's time to go back to work, putting her in the position of having to make a choice between her own safety and being able to pay the bills that continue to arrive despite the coronavirus. (Romo, 4/29)
PBS NewsHour:
More States Lift Restrictions, As Small Businesses Struggle To Secure Relief
Nine states have begun lifting pandemic restrictions in a bid to revive struggling economies. Many small businesses have tried to secure financial relief from the federal government’s Paycheck Protection Program -- but the initiative’s second round has been plagued with technical problems. Meanwhile, some officials worry that without expanded testing, reopening is unsafe. (Nawaz, 4/28)
